Інфляційне таргетування в умовах війни: особливості та обмеження монетарної політики України

Abstract

The article examines the adaptation of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine to the extraordinary economic conditions caused by the full-scale invasion in 2022. Based on empirical data and dynamic analysis, the main actions of the NBU to curb inflation are characterized, including the introduction of a fixed exchange rate, an increase in the discount rate, direct financing of the state budget through government bonds, refinancing of the banking system, as well as the subsequent transition to flexible exchange rate formation and the restoration of inflation targeting. It is shown that international financial support became a significant stabilizing factor, which made it possible to avoid uncontrolled price growth. The paper identifies structural limitations that restrained the influence of classical monetary policy, and outlines the directions of its adaptation in the conditions of a war economy. The article combines theoretical analysis and practical assessment of the NBU's policy, contributing to the understanding of the role of the central bank in managing inflation during a period of macroeconomic instability.