Моделювання впливу митних тарифів на обсяг імпорту та споживчі ціни

Abstract

The article models the aggregate supply in the domestic market of Ukraine based on the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function. The impact of customs tariffs on import volumes and the total supply of goods in the intermediate (INPUTS) and final (FIN) consumption sectors is studied. The model is built on the basis of equations (1) and (2), where the first describes the CES aggregation between imports and domestic supply, and the second describes the functional dependence between the ratio of imports and domestic production and the price ratio. For the empirical assessment, data for 2005-2024 were used, reflecting the dynamics of imports, domestic production and total supply in the two sectors of the economy. The modeling was performed for different scenarios of ad valorem duty rates (0%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%), which allowed us to quantitatively assess the reaction of the domestic market to changes in foreign trade policy. The results showed that an increase in customs tariffs leads to a decrease in imports in both sectors, and the elasticity of imports with respect to tariffs is higher in the final consumption sector. The aggregate supply calculated using the CES function demonstrates less sensitivity to tariff changes due to the partial substitution of imported goods by domestic production. The results obtained confirm the effectiveness of the CES model for analyzing the impact of tariff regulation on macroeconomic indicators and can be used in the formation of the state's trade and price policy.